1. Calvin Johnson- Detroit Lions- This pick is a no brainer. Megatron will pick right up where he left off in 2011. You can expect to see Johnson get tons of double coverage, but it will not matter.
2. Larry Fitzgerald- Arizona Cardinals- The QB situation in Arizona can be scary, but Fitzgerald is a true Playmaker. He finished the 2011 season with 80 Rec, 1411 Yards, 8 TD's, and managed to put up these numbers with no stud QB. Expect the same in 2012!
3. Wes Welker- NE Patriots- Welker plays in an offense with a lot of mouths to feed, but you can expect Welker to see the ball plenty from Tom Brady. Welker saw the ball thrown his way 172 times last year, but the Patriots added Brandon Lloyd in the Offseason. He will also have Gronkowski and Hernandez to compete with for targets. I expect a small drop in production, but he is still the best pick in this spot.
4. Brandon Marshall- Chicago Bears- Marshall is reunited with Jay Cutler who he played with in Denver, and posted 3 1,000 Yard Seasons. Cutler is healthy and will be looking in his direction often. Marshall will see significant double coverage giving Rookie Alshon Jeffery several targets as well, but in the end you will see a 100 rec season for Marshall.
5.Andre Johnson- Houston Texans- Johnson spent most of last year hampered by injuries and on the sideline. I expect to see Johnson have a bounce back season and solidify himself back at the top.
Wide Receiver Sleepers:
1. Alshon Jeffery- Chicago Bears- You can expect Jeffery to get several targets due to double coverage on Brandon Marshall. Jeffery has great size and is quite a Matchup issue as well. He should go 6th or 7th rounds in most drafts.
2.Michael Floyd- Arizona Cardinals- We have a 2nd rookie in this category. Fitzgerald will get most of the coverage attention leaving Floyd ripe for a great rookie season.
3. Eric Decker- Denver Broncos- The word is Decker and Manning have already developed some great chemistry, and I expect that to show in the Regular Season. Decker will make you a very solid #2 Wide Receiver.
Wide Receivers To Stay Away From:
1. Mario Manningham-San Francisco 49ers- He finished the year big for the Giants last season, but don't always fall for the hype. The 49ers already have Moss, Crabtree, and Davis which makes Manningham the fourth option. He will not see enough targets to justify picking him before your fourth WR.
2. Vincent Jackson- Tampa Bay Bucs- Jackson was very inconsistent last season in San Diego, and that was Phillip Rivers throwing the ball. Josh Freeman is not Rivers!
3.Torrey Smith-Baltimore Ravens- Smith has a lot of stock going in to this season, but I expect to see Boldin get more targets. I expect to see Smith have right around the same stats as last season. Don't get me wrong, 850 yards and 7 TD'S isn't bad, but he is a 6th or 7th round pick at best.
Top 5 Tight Ends:
1. Jimmy Graham- New Orleans Saints- I expect to see Graham get more targets that Gronkowski in a crowded NE Receiving core. This is the only reason for the order of the top 2.
2. Rob Gronkowski- New England Patriots- Gronkowski will have a great season, but he will not match the monster year from 2011. He has so much competition with the addition of Lloyd, Gonzalez, and Fells. He will also have a healthy Aaron Hernandez to share targets with, and this makes Graham the Top Tight End.
3. Jason Witten- Dallas Cowboys-This high powered Cowboys offense will result in big numbers for Witten. He had over 900 yards in 2011, but only saw the Endzone 5 times. I suspect you will see a jump in TD's in 2012.
4. Aaron Hernandez- New England Patriots- Hernandez makes two Tight Ends in the Top 5 for New England. He is healthy, and has Tom Brady throwing the ball.
5. Antonio Gates- San Diego Chargers- If you have faith in Gates staying healthy, then he is the #3 at this position. I don't have that faith!
Tight End Sleepers:
1. Fred Davis-Washington Redskins- I expect Davis to be a top target for rookie QB RG3. They are not loaded at WR, and the running game is unpredictable.
2. Jacob Tamme- Denver Broncos- Tamme and Manning have a history, and it includes a pretty good season for Tamme in 2010. Tamme caught 67 passes for 631 yards in only 10 games.
3. Lance Kendricks- St. Louis Rams- Kendricks is a big athletic Tight End with a top of upside. You can expect him to see many targets in this new Jeff Fisher offense.
Tight Ends To Stay Away From:
1. Coby Fleener- Indianapolis Colts- Fleener is getting a lot of hype due to his connection with Andrew Luck. The two Stanford teammate's only connected 34 times in 2011, but he did see the Endzone 10 times. He is just a toss up in my book, and I don't think he is worthy of the risk.
2. Mercedes Lewis- Jacksonville Jaguars- Two words, Blaine Gabbert!
3.Dallas Clark-Tampa Bay Bucs- I think Clark has seen his best days, and now he has no Peyton Manning. He will struggle in this Bucs offense with Freeman running the show.
Back tomorrow with my Top DEF/PK Picks for 2012